OTTAWA — The trend measure of housing starts in Canada was 201,936 units in July compared to 197,847 in June, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.
“July’s housing starts continued to pick up pace, as construction strengthened in BC and Ontario’s multi-unit segments,” said Aled ab Iorwerth, CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist. “This reflects continued strong demand for lower-priced homes and low inventories of completed and unsold new units.”
CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of Canada’s housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.
The standalone monthly SAAR for all areas in Canada was 198,395 units in July, down from 218,326 units in June. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 9.9 per cent in July to 182,620 units. Multiple urban starts decreased by 13.3 per cent to 123,630 units in July and the single-detached urban starts decreased by 1.8 per cent to 58,990 units.
In July, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased in Quebec, British Columbia, Ontario, and in Atlantic Canada, but increased in the Prairies.
Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15,775 units.
Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link:Preliminary Housing Starts Tables
As Canada’s authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.
| June 2016 | July 2016 | |
|---|---|---|
| Trend1, all areas | 197,847 | 201,936 |
| SAAR, all areas | 218,326 | 198,395 |
| SAAR, rural areas2 | 15,568 | 15,775 |
| SAAR, urban centres3 | ||
| Single-detached | 60,092 | 58,990 |
| Multiples | 142,666 | 123,620 |
| Total | 202,758 | 182,620 |
| Atlantic, urban centres | 6,467 | 5,582 |
| Quebec, urban centres | 33,296 | 27,344 |
| Ontario, urban centres | 84,784 | 72,594 |
| Prairies, urban centres | 30,189 | 36,050 |
| British Columbia, urban centres | 48,022 | 41,050 |
| Canada | July 2015 | July 2016 |
| Actual, all areas | 18,115 | 18,555 |
| Actual, rural areas | 1,796 | 1,774 |
| Actual, urban centres | ||
| July — Single-detached | 5,838 | 6,063 |
| July — Multiples | 10,481 | 10,718 |
| July — Total | 16,319 | 16,781 |
| January to July — Single-detached | 31,425 | 32,527 |
| January to July — Multiples | 66,880 | 69,078 |
| January to July — Total | 98,305 | 101,605 |
Source: CMHC
1 The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR). By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for comparison of adjacent months and quarters. The monthly and quarterly SAAR and trend figures indicate the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the same pace of monthly or quarterly construction activity was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.
2 CMHC estimates the level of starts in centres with a population of less than 10,000 for each of the three months of the quarter, at the beginning of each quarter. During the last month of the quarter, CMHC conducts the survey in these centres and revises the estimate.
3 Urban centres with a population of 10,000 and over.